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The director of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, the world’s social security system and theory research center (World Social Security Research Center) A NOTE recently has written that in China, the pension is to lead to an incentive of the debt crisis. As of the end of 2010, the Chinese personal accounts billing $ 1.9 trillion yuan, of which 203.9 billion yuan and solid account, there is a shortfall of 1.7 trillion yuan.
More expected, a report released by the World Bank between 2001 and 2075 in accordance with the present system and mode of China’s pension income and expenditure gap will reach 9.15 trillion yuan. ”
Whether view of ZhengBingWen, or the World Bank forecast, tell us that a basic fact, the degree of aging has been further exacerbated in the framework of the existing social security system, to ensure that each retiree in 2020 can receive pensions, replacement rate (ie, pensioners accounted for the proportion of the average social wage) of 52.4% pay gap of these two pension plans will continue to increase.
According to the sixth national census data, China’s urban population of more than 660 million people, but now the basic pension insurance was only 260 million people, the rural farmer’s insurance coverage is lower, only 143 million people or so. Once the old-age insurance to expand coverage, improve the level of protection, affordable payment will be increasing pressure, while the pension gap will be even more serious.
Of course, the official pension existence of the huge gap can not agree. Human Resources and Social Security Minister Yin Weimin said the “two sessions” during the press conference this year, pension income in 2011 of about 1.3 trillion yuan spent about 1.2 trillion yuan, a slight balance. But he also acknowledged that the financial subsidies to workers pensions last year, about 180 billion yuan, if the net of financial assistance, there are 13 provinces there are gaps.
In fact, the official evade pension huge gap is not the best. Chinese pension problems, the reasons of both the system itself, is also population aging consequences. As China’s pension system is issued after the retirement pension only from the planning system “and low-wage benefits” bodiless from the personal account was established, the funds misappropriated later paid pension, This createsfred perry shirts the “empty account” to run the pension gap and individual accounts.
To put it plainly, is the younger generation, sent money to the older generation, then it must find more young people, the entire social security system can be maintained, otherwise it will collapse. But the question now is, due to population policy, to pay the young people will be less and less money are more and more elderly.
The reason is the old-age insurance system in China is not top-level design and long-term estimates, the relevant departments to set system long-term sustainability of the expense of the social security system is too simple to think as long as the pensions, regardless of the risk in the future. This is the biggest problem. Because of our current social security coverage is still relatively small, with the expansion of coverage included in the system are young, they only pay without paying, cash flow, but after bets are off.
In fact, China’s pension system is inherently flawed. However, due to the pension gap has been expanding, the limited financial subsidies can not keep up its rate of expansion. Today, the intensity of financial subsidies to pension funds, by two factors, one of the local financial debt crisis; Second, with the inflection point the advent of the demographic dividend, high growth of economic and tax terrorism will end.
To bridge the pension gap, to reverse the trend of pension to make ends meet, chaos prescription: to get the return on investment through the investment of the pension insurance fund, so that the pension value-added. Some market participants hold such a view, to advocate the social security fund to invest in stocks. But since it is investment, so, there is the possibility of loss.
In order to dispel public anxiety on the pension issue, and gradually narrow the huge gap in pensions, the Government should be in two ways.
The one hand increase the support of the state-owned assets of the pension. This is also a common practice around the world. By state-owned shares switched state-owned enterprises turned over to the bonus to supplement social security, but is doing is not enough, for example, in 2011 the central enterprises to profit only 0.4% supplement social security, the huge profits with Ralph Lauren t shirts for mena number of state-owned enterprises in stark contrast. Therefore, we should further increase the state-owned enterprises turned over to the proportion of profit from these profits come up with at least 10% supplementary pension funds.
On the other hand, the financial need to increase investment in pension. In 2010, the basic pension insurance fund for financial subsidies at all levels of 195.4 billion yuan, but also accounted for 2.2% of national expenditures. German pension accounted for 10.3 percent of GDP, the U.S. pension accounting for 9.4 percent of GDP, the Japanese pension accounts for more than 20% of GDP, while China accounted for only 4.3 percent of GDP in pension. This situation should change, the pension to the country’s total fiscal expenditure increased by 2.2% to 5%.